Scenario Explorer
Explore the future of Australia’s electricity market. A range of modelled scenarios exist which envision the future of the NEM. These scenarios aim to steer Australia towards a cost-effective, reliable and safe energy system en route to a zero-emissions network
AEMO 2024 ISP
AEMO 2022 ISP
Technology | Generation | Capacity |
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| Sources | 0 | 0 |
| Impact | Volume | Intensity |
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Emissions |
AEMO Step Change 2024
An accelerated transition which fulfils Australia’s emissions reduction commitments in a growing economy, with faster coal retirements and significant investments in new technologies.
- Accelerated timeline for coal plant retirements
- Significant investments in battery storage and gas-powered generation
- Increased adoption of EVs (97% by 2050)
- About 10,000km of transmission required by 2050
- Early investments in transmission infrastructure and firming capacity
The Step Change scenario involves a transition of the power system that is consistent with Australia’s contribution to limiting global temperature rise to 2°C. This scenario has strong emphasis on the role and integration of consumer energy resources, such as rooftop solar and battery storage. It also includes strong electrification across transport and industry, as well as small amounts of hydrogen for domestic industrial loads.
This scenario results in a rapid transition to renewable energy, with an accelerated timeline for coal plant retirements. A faster deployment of renewable energy capacity, 6GW of new utility scale renewable energy per year, is required to replace retiring coal plants and meet increased electricity demand. The scenario also includes substantial investments in battery storage and as well as some gas-powered generation for firming. By 2034, over half of detached homes in the NEM would have rooftop solar, rising to 79% in 2050. The adoption of EVs is expected to rise significantly (97% by 2050), contributing to increased electricity demand and supporting the overall transition.
Net zero summary: This scenario aims to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, with a rapid transition to renewable energy driven by strong policy commitments and substantial investments in new technologies.
